{"id":3973,"date":"2020-08-05T15:51:29","date_gmt":"2020-08-05T15:51:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.teamgram.com\/tgblog\/?p=3973"},"modified":"2025-04-04T17:53:12","modified_gmt":"2025-04-04T17:53:12","slug":"satis-surecinizdeki-firsat-verilerini-kullanarak-daha-iyi-satis-tahminleri-yapin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\\/\\/www.teamgram.com\\/blog\/tr\/satis-surecinizdeki-firsat-verilerini-kullanarak-daha-iyi-satis-tahminleri-yapin\/","title":{"rendered":"Sat\u0131\u015f S\u00fcrecinizdeki F\u0131rsat Verilerini Kullanarak Daha \u0130yi Sat\u0131\u015f Tahminleri Yapabilirsiniz"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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F\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n tutar, tahmini sonu\u00e7lanma tarihi ve olas\u0131l\u0131k bilgileri sat\u0131\u015f tahminleri olu\u015fturmada kullan\u0131l\u0131r.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neden Sat\u0131\u015f Tahminlerine \u0130htiya\u00e7 Var?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sat\u0131\u015f tahmini, gelecekteki bir d\u00f6nemde kazanmay\u0131 bekledi\u011finiz sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n tahmini de\u011ferlerinin toplam\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u015eirketinizin sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f tahmininin nas\u0131l olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini bilirseniz, olumsuz durumlara kar\u015f\u0131 zaman\u0131nda harekete ge\u00e7erek hedeflerinizi daha kolay yakalars\u0131n\u0131z. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00d6rnek olarak, herhangi bir ay\u0131n 15’inde bir sonraki ay i\u00e7in 100 bin TL  sat\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6rmeye al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 varsayal\u0131m. Bu ay\u0131n 15’inde yaln\u0131zca 80 bin TL \u00f6n g\u00f6r\u00fcyorsan\u0131z, daha fazla m\u00fc\u015fteri aday\u0131 bulmak i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u015flamak isteyebilirsiniz. Bu \u015fekilde, gelecek ay hedeflerinize ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in ge\u00e7 kalmadan harekete ge\u00e7mi\u015f olursunuz. Sat\u0131\u015f tahmini olmadan bunu yapmak zordur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ne Kadar \u0130leriyi G\u00f6rebilirsiniz?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Genellikle, uzun vadeli tahminler uzun sat\u0131\u015f s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinde daha iyi \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bir f\u0131rsat\u0131 kapatmak genellikle alt\u0131 ay s\u00fcr\u00fcyorsa, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 3 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde sonu\u00e7lanacak t\u00fcm sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu anda zaten sat\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinizde oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilirsiniz. Bu, size daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i tahminler yapma imkan\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ama e\u011fer tipik sat\u0131\u015f s\u00fcreciniz yaln\u0131zca birka\u00e7 hafta s\u00fcr\u00fcyorsa, bir aydan daha uzak sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tahmin etmek kolay olmayabilir. Bu durumda, tahminler yapmak i\u00e7in sat\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecindeki f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra ba\u015fka kaynaklar\u0131 da kullanman\u0131z gerekir. Bunlar, d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm oranlar\u0131n\u0131z, pazarlama b\u00fct\u00e7eniz, tarihsel pazar verileri ve trend verilerinden olu\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tahminler Tutmayabilir, Ama Bu Bir Sorun De\u011fil.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Tahminler nadiren tam isabet kaydeder. Neyse ki, buna gerek yok.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Olas\u0131 sapmalar\u0131 tutarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde tahmin etmek, gelecekte ne kadar sataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 tam olarak bulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktan daha \u00f6nemlidir. Unutmay\u0131n ki tahmin yapman\u0131n as\u0131l amac\u0131 olas\u0131 istenmeyen durumlar\u0131 \u00f6nceden g\u00f6rmek ve m\u00fcmk\u00fcnse bunlardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tahminlerle ger\u00e7ek sat\u0131\u015flar aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiyi ne kadar iyi anlarsan\u0131z, onlardan o kadar iyi faydalanabilirsiniz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00d6rnek olarak, pazarlama faaliyetleriyle yeni nitelikli m\u00fc\u015fteri adaylar\u0131 olu\u015fturman\u0131n ortalama iki hafta s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve ard\u0131ndan sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 kazanmak i\u00e7in ortalama d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k bir s\u00fcrenin gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu ay ortas\u0131na kadar, bir sonraki ay\u0131n hedeflerine ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in daha fazla m\u00fc\u015fteri aday\u0131na ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131z olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131na karar vermeniz gerekecektir. Bu ay\u0131n sonuna kadar bulamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z m\u00fc\u015fteri adaylar\u0131, muhtemelen gelecek ay m\u00fc\u015fteri olamazlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00d6te yandan, gelecek ay kazanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hen\u00fcz sat\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinize girmemi\u015f oldu\u011funu da g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7\u0131rmayal\u0131m. Yani \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ay sat\u0131\u015f yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z ki\u015filerin yar\u0131s\u0131yla hen\u00fcz tan\u0131\u015fmad\u0131n\u0131z bile. Bu durumda nas\u0131l tahmin yapacaks\u0131n\u0131z?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fazla ileriyi g\u00f6rmeseniz bile, iyi tahminler yapmak ve zaman\u0131nda \u00f6nlem almak i\u00e7in mevcut verileri kullanmaya devam edebilirsiniz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00d6rnek olarak, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte ay ortas\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinde olan f\u0131rsatlarla bir sonraki ay i\u00e7in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z tahmininin genellikle sonraki ay ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n %60\u2019\u0131 kadar oldu\u011funu g\u00f6zlemledi\u011finizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim. Gelecek ay i\u00e7in hedefiniz 100 bin TL ve sat\u0131\u015f s\u00fcreci verilerine dayal\u0131 g\u00fcncel tahmininiz 40 bin TL ise  (60 bin TL yerine), gelecek ay sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n istedi\u011finizden daha yava\u015f gitmesini bekleyebilirsiniz. Hedefinize ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in ek pazarlama harcamas\u0131 gerekebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

G\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcz gibi, gelecek d\u00f6nemde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek t\u00fcm sat\u0131\u015flar hen\u00fcz sat\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinizde olmasa bile, tahminlerde bulunabilir ve d\u00fczeltici \u00f6nlemler alabiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sat\u0131\u015f Sonu\u00e7lanana Kadar Kesin Bir \u015eey Yok<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131n sonucunu tahmin etmek zor olabilir. Bazen i\u015fler planland\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi gitmez. Rakipler beklenmedik hamleler yapar. Al\u0131c\u0131lar fikir de\u011fi\u015ftirir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sat\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecindeki t\u00fcm f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n de\u011ferlerini toplay\u0131p bu kadar para kazanmay\u0131 bekleyemezsiniz. Bu f\u0131rsatlardan baz\u0131lar\u0131 kaybedilebilir. Baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011feri artabilir. Hesapta olmayan sat\u0131\u015flar ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilir, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenenler gecikebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Olas\u0131l\u0131k Hesaplama<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Neyse ki sat\u0131c\u0131lar genellikle hangi f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 kazanma olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu kolay anlarlar. Olas\u0131l\u0131k \u00e7arpan\u0131<\/em> kullanarak bu bilgiyi hesaplar\u0131m\u0131za dahil edebilir ve daha do\u011fru tahminler yapabiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Teknik olarak, olas\u0131l\u0131k \u00e7arpan\u0131 %0 ile %100 aras\u0131nda bir say\u0131d\u0131r. % 0, f\u0131rsat\u0131 kazanma \u015fans\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir (ki bu durumda asl\u0131nda bir f\u0131rsat yok demektir). %100 ise kesinlikle f\u0131rsat\u0131n kazan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir (ki asla sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 tamamlayana kadar bundan emin olamay\u0131z).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pratikte, tam bir y\u00fczde bulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak anlams\u0131zd\u0131r. Kim bir f\u0131rsat\u0131n kazan\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %65 veya %69 de\u011fil, tam olarak %67 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebilir ki? Daha iyi bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 say\u0131da olas\u0131l\u0131k aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 kullanmak ve sat\u0131\u015f g\u00f6revlilerinden her f\u0131rsat i\u00e7in hangisinin daha uygun oldu\u011funu se\u00e7melerini istemektir: \u00c7ok D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, Orta, Y\u00fcksek veya \u00c7ok Y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7o\u011fu sat\u0131c\u0131, sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00f6yle bir \u00f6l\u00e7ekle kolayca de\u011ferlendirebilir. Mesela bir f\u0131rsat\u0131 kazanma konusunda kendilerine g\u00fcveniyorlarsa, olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylerler. Emin olmad\u0131klar\u0131nda, orta oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylerler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu olas\u0131l\u0131k tahmini, f\u0131rsat verisinin \u00f6nemli bir par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r. Arka planda, TeamGram olas\u0131l\u0131k derecesine bir y\u00fczde puan\u0131 atar ve bunu o f\u0131rsat\u0131n beklenen de\u011ferini hesaplamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131r. Daha y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 bir f\u0131rsat, ayn\u0131 tutarda ancak daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir f\u0131rsattan daha de\u011ferlidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Daha Fazla F\u0131rsat, Daha \u0130yi Tahminler<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sat\u0131\u015f tahminleri, olas\u0131l\u0131klara g\u00f6re a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat tutarlar\u0131n\u0131n toplanmas\u0131yla bulunur. Sat\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecindeki f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131 artt\u0131k\u00e7a, bu y\u00f6ntemin do\u011frulu\u011fu b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde iyile\u015fir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Makine satt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 ve her ekipman par\u00e7as\u0131n\u0131n 50 bin TL fiyat\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ay kapanmas\u0131 beklenen \u00fc\u00e7 f\u0131rsat\u0131n\u0131z olsun. Her f\u0131rsat\u0131n da  50.000 TL tutarl\u0131 tek bir ekipman sat\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan olu\u015ftu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim. E\u011fer bunlar\u0131n her birinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %50 ise, gelecek ay i\u00e7in t\u00fcm f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n beklenen de\u011feri 3 * 50 bin TL * % 50 = 75 bin TL olacakt\u0131r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu tahmin tuhaf g\u00f6r\u00fcnecektir, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc satabilece\u011finiz en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli \u00fcr\u00fcn 50 bin TL. Bu durumda gelecek ay sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131z ancak 0 TL, 50 bin TL, 100 bin TL veya 150 bin TL olabilir, ancak asla 75 bin TL olamaz. Tahminin \u00e7ok do\u011fru olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belli (en iyi ihtimalle% 25 hata var). Yine de \u00f6nceki aylar\u0131n tahminleriyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda faydal\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u015eimdi ayn\u0131 senaryoyu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn, ancak sat\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinde 3 yerine 30 f\u0131rsat olsun. Gelecek ay kapanmas\u0131 beklenen t\u00fcm f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n tahmini de\u011feri 30 * 50 bin TL *% 50 = 750 bin TL olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bir \u00f6nceki tahmine g\u00f6re bu \u00e7ok daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Sat\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecindeki f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 kazanarak bu hedefi tam olarak tutturabilirsiniz. Ger\u00e7ekte t\u00fcm sat\u0131\u015flarda %5 ek indirim gerekse ve 15 yerine 16 sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 kazansan\u0131z sonu\u00e7ta 760 bin TL sat\u0131\u015fa ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olursunuz ki bu durumda ger\u00e7ek sat\u0131\u015f tutar\u0131yla tahmininiz aras\u0131ndaki fark %2\u2019den az olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sat\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinde \u00e7ok say\u0131da f\u0131rsata sahip olmak, daha do\u011fru tahminler yapman\u0131za ve tutarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde hedeflerin yakalanmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur. Her sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 i\u00e7in tutar ve olas\u0131l\u0131k tahminlerini do\u011fru yapamasan\u0131z bile, \u00e7ok say\u0131da sat\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok say\u0131da f\u0131rsatla ilgili \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerinin birle\u015fiminden olu\u015fan tahminler yine de ger\u00e7e\u011fe daha yak\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kar. B\u00fcy\u00fck sat\u0131\u015f organizasyonlar\u0131 bu sayede gelecekteki sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse kesin bir do\u011frulukla tahmin edebilmektedirler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u0131rsat Bilgilerini S\u0131k G\u00fcncellemenin \u00d6nemi<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

CRM sisteminize her zaman sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131z i\u00e7in en ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i tahminlerinizi girmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131n. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bir f\u0131rsat\u0131n erken a\u015famalar\u0131nda, al\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n neye ihtiyac\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve ne t\u00fcr bir rekabetle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 bilemeyebilirsiniz. Kazanmak konusunda kendinizden daha az emin olabilirsiniz ve daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir olas\u0131l\u0131k derecesi se\u00e7ebilirsiniz. Pazarl\u0131k ilerledik\u00e7e ve g\u00fcveniniz artt\u0131k\u00e7a, tahmininizi g\u00fcncellemek isteyebilirsiniz. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benzer \u015fekilde, sat\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinin ilk a\u015famalar\u0131nda bir sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n nihai de\u011ferini tahmin etmek kolay olmayabilir. Teklifiniz \u015fekillendik\u00e7e ve m\u00fczakereler ilerledik\u00e7e daha do\u011fru bir de\u011fer tahminine sahip olacaks\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u0131rsat de\u011ferlerini ve olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcncelledi\u011finizde, TeamGram tahminleri otomatik olarak yeniden hesaplar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tahminleri G\u00f6rselle\u015ftirme<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

TeamGram, sat\u0131\u015f tahminlerini \u00f6zetlemenize yard\u0131mc\u0131 olan \u00e7e\u015fitli g\u00f6stergelere ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmlere sahiptir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sat\u0131\u015f s\u00fcreci sayfas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerindeki tahmin g\u00f6stergelerini takip edin. Bunlar, yak\u0131n vadeli tahminlerdeki de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri izlemenize yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sat\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinin tahmin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de (beklenen sonu\u00e7lanma aylar\u0131na g\u00f6re d\u00fczenlenmi\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k f\u0131rsatlar) gelecek aylarda beklenen sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 kolayca g\u00f6rebilmenizi sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u015eimdi TeamGram’\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f s\u00fcreci sayfas\u0131na gidin ve t\u00fcm a\u00e7\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131n tahmini de\u011ferlerinin, beklenen kapan\u0131\u015f tarihlerinin ve olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n girilmi\u015f oldu\u011fundan emin olun. Ard\u0131ndan, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde ne bekleyebilece\u011finizi g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in tahmin ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kontrol edin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

TeamGram hesab\u0131n\u0131z yok mu? Buradan \u00fccretsiz deneme hesab\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

CRM yaz\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131zdaki f\u0131rsat bilgileri, sat\u0131\u015f tahminleri yapmay\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. Hedeflerinizi tutturmak i\u00e7in zaman\u0131nda \u00f6nlemler alman\u0131z\u0131 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